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| নির্বাচিত পোস্ট | লগইন | রেজিস্ট্রেশন করুন | রিফ্রেস |
রেজাউল করিম ফকির
অধ্যাপক, কোবে গাকুইন বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়
Abstract
Bangladesh's post-independence trajectory has been marked by a recurring pattern of violent political ruptures—from assassinations and military coups to the steady rise of religious extremism. These forces have repeatedly destabilized its nascent democratic institutions, reshaping governance structures, eroding secular ideals, and fostering an authoritarian political culture with increasingly Islamist undertones. This essay traces the trajectory of these disruptive forces, from the pivotal events of 1975 to the August 2024 student uprising, and analyzes their long-term implications for Bangladesh's fragile sociopolitical order.
Keywords: Bangladesh, political violence, military coups, religious extremism, authoritarianism, democratization
1. Introduction: Disruption and the Collapse of Founding Ideals (1975 Assassination & Coups)
The 1975 Assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
The assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the architect of Bangladesh's independence, on 15 August 1975, was the first major rupture in the nation's political narrative. Perpetrated by a group of mid-ranking military officers, the coup dismantled the ideological foundations of the newly-formed state (Lifschultz, 1979; Ahmed, 2022).
Immediate Consequences
The assassination had three critical immediate consequences. First, it marked the demise of secular socialism: Mujib's secular, socialist vision, embodied in the BAKSAL system, was abandoned (Ahmed, 2011). Second, it initiated the militarization of politics: The assassination marked the first direct military intervention in Bangladesh's civilian administration, establishing the military as a central political actor. Third, it created a legitimacy crisis: The assassination shattered public trust in civilian rule, opening space for authoritarian "correctives."
Subsequent Coups and Military Regimes (1975-1990)
Ziaur Rahman (1975-1981)
General Ziaur Rahman emerged from the chaos to become President, institutionalizing the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). He reoriented national ideology from secularism to "Bangladeshi nationalism", emphasizing Islamic identity (Hossain & Siddiquee, 2004; Islam, 2018).
Key policy changes under Zia included the removal of secularism from the Constitution through the Fifth Amendment, replacing "Bangalee nationalism" with "Bangladeshi nationalism" (Riaz, 2004). Additionally, his regime rehabilitated Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamist parties, giving them mainstream legitimacy, and introduced Islamic phrases such as "Bismillah-ar-Rahman-ar-Rahim" into the constitution's preamble.
Hussain Muhammad Ershad (1982-1990)
Ershad seized power in a bloodless coup on 24 March 1982, suspending the Constitution and imposing martial law. His regime marked the culmination of state-sponsored Islamization through several key measures. Most significantly, he declared Islam the state religion in 1988 through the Eighth Constitutional Amendment, inserting Article 2A which stated "the state religion of the Republic is Islam but other religions may be practiced in harmony."
Furthermore, Ershad's regime introduced Arabic as a compulsory subject in elementary classes and Islamic studies into the school curriculum. It also established an Islamic University and promoted madrassa education extensively, with madrassas increasing from 1,830 in 1975-76 to 2,700 in 1988.
These developments institutionalized military dominance and laid the foundation for the systematic Islamization of the political system, transforming Bangladesh's identity from "secular Bangladesh" into "Muslim Bangladesh" (Uddin, 2006).
2. Deconstruction: The Erosion of Secularism and Rise of Extremism
Islamization as a Political Tool
Successive military regimes saw political Islam not just as an ideological choice but as a strategic tool for legitimacy, repression, and social control (Rahman & Islam, 2019). The military rulers used Islam strategically to counter secular opposition forces, build legitimacy for authoritarian rule, and create new power networks outside traditional political structures.
Emergence of Jihadist Networks
By the late 1990s and early 2000s, extremist groups with transnational ties began to flourish. Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami Bangladesh (HUJI-B) emerged as an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Harakat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami, with stated goals of combating worldwide oppression of Muslims. Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) was founded in 1989 by Maulana Abdur Rahman, who was educated in madrassas and influenced by Wahhabi ideology during time in Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) later evolved into Ansar al Islam, with ISIS connections.
Major Attacks
Several major attacks demonstrated the growing threat of extremist violence. The 2005 JMB bombings occurred on 17 August 2005, when hundreds of coordinated bombs were detonated across 63 districts within hours of each other, killing three people and injuring roughly one hundred others, signaling the groups' national reach.
The 2016 Holey Artisan attack, claimed by ISIS, exposed radicalization among educated youth when Neo-JMB militants stormed the upscale bakery in Dhaka's diplomatic area, killing 20 people. Additionally, serial assassinations of bloggers, writers, and secular activists were systematically targeted, including prominent cases like Avijit Roy in 2015.
Mainstreaming of Religious Extremism
BNP-Jamaat Alliance (2001-2006)
Following the 2001 Bangladeshi general election, Jamaat-e-Islami formed a coalition government with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), with two Jamaat leaders receiving ministerial positions. This period was marked by systematic human rights violations against minorities, particularly Hindu, Buddhist, and Christian communities, as well as persecution of the Ahmadiyya Muslim community.
The coalition also provided patronage to extremist groups like JMB, HUJI-B, Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), and Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh (AHAB), while the government maintained denial of Islamic extremism despite coalition partners' links with militant groups.
Awami League's Complex Relationship with Islamism
Though Sheikh Hasina's regime (post-2009) cracked down on militancy, it often made concessions to Islamist pressure groups such as Hefazat-e-Islam to maintain political stability (Shehabuddin, 2008).
3. Reconstitution: Toward Hybrid Authoritarianism (2009-2024)
Dominant Party Rule Under Sheikh Hasina
Under Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule, Bangladesh evolved into a dominant-party state where elections were contested but the Awami League maintained near-total control through systematic undermining of democratic institutions. This was achieved through institutional capture, as the government systematically undermined the independence of Bangladesh's institutions, particularly the police, judiciary and bureaucracy.
The regime employed authoritarian practices including widespread human rights violations and regular crackdowns on opponents, coupled with economic mismanagement and worsening corruption. Electoral manipulation became routine, with the January 2024 elections being boycotted by opposition parties and denounced by observers as neither free nor fair.
Persistent Islamist Influence
Despite militant crackdowns, soft Islamization persisted, especially in education and legal policies, with groups like Hefazat-e-Islam shaping curriculum debates and moral policing. Counter-terrorism operations, previously conducted by the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), saw stagnation and demoralization after August 2024.
Societal Shifts
Two significant trends emerged during this period. An urban-rural divide developed where urban centers promoted secularism and liberalism while rural regions became increasingly conservative. Youth radicalization was amplified by social media, transnational jihadi narratives, and regional conflicts like the Rohingya crisis.
4. The August 2024 Student Uprising: Revolution or Managed Transition?
The events of August 2024 that led to Sheikh Hasina's downfall present a complex picture that goes beyond a simple student-led democratic revolution. While popular mobilization was undeniably crucial, emerging analyses suggest multiple actors and interests shaped this "accidental revolution."
Origins and Development
The movement began as protests against the reinstatement of controversial quotas for government jobs that favored descendants of the 1971 liberation war. However, Hasina's brutal response—including a nationwide internet shutdown and deadly crackdown—transformed the student movement into a popular revolt.
Key Phases and Behind-the-Scenes Dynamics
The uprising evolved through several distinct phases. Initial Protests (June-July 2024) started with about 500 students at Dhaka University on June 6, 2024, demanding repeal of the job quota system. Escalation occurred when the government's inflammatory response, including calling protesters "razakars" (collaborators), further inflamed tensions.
Military Calculations became evident by August 4, when army officials had grown reluctant to open fire on civilians, with reports that top army and police officials played a critical role in convincing Hasina to step down. The Non-cooperation Movement was announced on August 3, 2024, when student coordinators announced a one-point demand for the Prime Minister's resignation and called for "comprehensive non-cooperation."
The Final Phase occurred on August 5, when hundreds of thousands of protesters marched on Dhaka despite risks, leading to Hasina's resignation when the army refused to intervene.
The "Soft Coup" Debate
While some initially characterized the events as a potential "soft coup" conducted by the armed forces, evidence suggests the army chief let the marchers proceed reluctantly and under pressure from within military ranks. However, the military's strategic calculations included ensuring military influence in any post-Hasina arrangement, achieving geopolitical realignment by reducing India's overwhelming influence while opening space for China and Gulf powers, and maintaining stability concerns to prevent total state collapse that could harm military interests.
Foreign Influence Dynamics
The transition period has revealed complex foreign influence patterns involving multiple regional and global powers.
China's Strategic Positioning
China pursued several strategic objectives during the transition. Economic interests focused on protecting Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, especially port infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars. Geopolitical goals aimed at countering India's regional dominance through support for a more balanced foreign policy. Military cooperation involved expanding defense partnerships and intelligence sharing arrangements, while soft power initiatives included educational exchanges, cultural programs, and media partnerships to build long-term influence.
Gulf States' Complex Engagement
Saudi Arabia and UAE reportedly favor Islamist-leaning stability to counter Qatar-Turkey-backed democratic Islamist movements. Economic leverage involves using energy partnerships and the 2+ million Bangladeshi workers in Gulf countries to influence policy directions. Religious influence operates through funding of mosques, madrassas, and Islamic educational institutions, while investment opportunities in major infrastructure and energy projects create economic dependencies.
India's Strategic Dilemma
India faces multiple challenges following Hasina's departure. Security concerns include the loss of a reliable partner in counter-terrorism cooperation and anti-insurgency operations. Border implications involve managing the 4,000-kilometer border amid political uncertainty and potential refugee flows. Economic interests require protecting $2 billion in annual trade and significant infrastructure investments, while strategic competition focuses on preventing China from gaining dominant influence in a strategically crucial neighbor.
Emerging Patterns of Hybrid Governance
The post-August 2024 period reveals several concerning trends that suggest a move toward what scholars term "managed democracy" or "competitive authoritarianism."
Military's Shadow Role
The military maintains significant influence through institutional continuity. While not ruling directly, the military maintains significant behind-the-scenes influence through continued control over key security decisions despite civilian leadership and informal consultation on major policy decisions affecting national security.
Islamist Leverage and Policy Concessions
The interim period has seen increased Islamist influence manifested in several ways. Educational Policy Shifts include pressure for curriculum changes, including potential rollback of secular content and expansion of Islamic studies. Legal Framework Discussions involve renewed debates about blasphemy laws and Islamic jurisprudence in family law.
Institutional Representation has provided Islamist groups with representation in the interim government through organizations like Islami Andolan Bangladesh. Madrassa Expansion discussions focus on increased state funding for Qawmi madrassas, potentially deepening ideological divides.
Social Polarization Dynamics
The transition has revealed deep societal fractures across multiple dimensions. The urban-rural divide shows urban areas supporting secular, liberal democratic values while rural regions demonstrate growing conservative Islamic identity and suspicion of Western-influenced modernization.
Generational tensions exist between younger, educated populations who favor progressive reforms and secular governance, and traditional religious communities seeking greater Islamic influence in public life. Economic grievances related to youth unemployment and economic inequality fuel both democratic aspirations and radical recruitment.
5. Contemporary Implications and Authoritarian Techniques
The Evolution of Authoritarian Methods
Bangladesh's current political dynamics demonstrate how authoritarianism has evolved in the 21st century. Unlike the crude military coups of the 1970s and 1980s, contemporary authoritarian consolidation employs more sophisticated techniques.
Soft Power Mechanisms
Modern authoritarian consolidation operates through institutional capture, involving gradual control of courts, election commissions, and civil service rather than dramatic seizures. Legal manipulation uses existing laws and constitutional processes to eliminate opposition. Media control employs economic pressure and legal harassment rather than outright censorship, while civil society cooption creates parallel organizations to compete with independent groups.
The "Managed Democracy" Model
Contemporary Bangladesh risks adopting what scholars term "competitive authoritarianism" or "managed democracy," characterized by several key features. Electoral façade involves regular elections that provide legitimacy while ensuring predetermined outcomes. Controlled competition permits opposition parties but systematically disadvantages them.
Selective repression targets key opposition figures while maintaining appearance of rule of law, while popular legitimation uses religious or nationalist appeals to mobilize genuine support.
Regional and Global Context
Learning from Authoritarian Success Stories
Bangladesh's current trajectory shows influences from several regional models. The Turkey Model demonstrates gradual Islamization under democratic facade, with initial economic success followed by authoritarian consolidation, use of religious nationalism to mobilize support, and systematic dismantling of secular institutions.
The Egypt Model emphasizes security-first approach, prioritizing stability and economic development over political freedoms, with military as ultimate guarantor. The Singapore Model represents technocratic authoritarianism, where efficient governance and economic growth justify limitations on political competition.
International Enabling Environment
Several global trends facilitate authoritarian consolidation. Great Power Competition in the US-China rivalry creates opportunities for smaller countries to play major powers against each other. Authoritarian Learning enables regimes to share techniques for managing opposition and maintaining power.
Economic Pragmatism involves international focus on economic relations over political governance, while Crisis Normalization leads to global acceptance of emergency measures and restricted freedoms.
6. Policy Implications and Warning Signs
Early Warning Indicators
Several developments in post-August 2024 Bangladesh signal potential authoritarian drift across multiple domains.
Educational Policy Shifts
Concerning trends include curriculum reviews emphasizing "cultural authenticity" over global perspectives, expansion of Islamic studies requirements in public education, and restrictions on NGO-funded educational programs labeled as "foreign interference."
Legal and Constitutional Changes
Potential authoritarian indicators include constitutional reform discussions that could weaken secular provisions, introduction of stricter blasphemy enforcement mechanisms, and expansion of military courts' jurisdiction over civilian matters.
Civil Society Restrictions
Warning signs include new registration requirements for NGOs and civil society organizations, foreign funding restrictions on advocacy groups, and increased surveillance of academic and intellectual institutions.
International Response Strategies
The international community faces difficult choices in responding to Bangladesh's evolving situation through various strategic approaches.
Engagement vs. Isolation
Constructive engagement involves maintaining dialogue while pressing for democratic reforms. Conditional assistance links aid and investment to governance improvements, while targeted sanctions focus on specific individuals rather than broad economic measures.
Multilateral Coordination
Regional organizations like SAARC and ASEAN can provide platforms for diplomatic pressure. International financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF can condition support on governance benchmarks, while democratic partnerships enable coordination among democratic nations to provide consistent messaging.
Geopolitical Ramifications
India's Concerns
India faces significant challenges as Hasina was a longtime ally. The relationship was bolstered by personal friendships and robust security partnerships, with Indian security establishments relying on Hasina's government to crack down on radical Islamist groups.
China's Opportunity
For many observers, China may be the biggest beneficiary of Bangladesh's current political challenges, given its track record of leveraging political instability to assert economic and strategic influence.
Domestic Political Realignment
BNP-Jamaat Relations
The fall of Hasina has exposed fundamental differences between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. While they were alliance partners against Hasina, their visions for Bangladesh's future differ significantly, with BNP favoring quick elections and Jamaat pushing for constitutional reforms.
Rise of Islamist Influence
Since the interim government took office, activities of groups like HUJI, JMB, ABT, and Hizbut Tahrir have increased, with at least 144 militants released from jail as of December 2024.
7. Future Scenarios: Democratic Consolidation, Authoritarian Drift, or Fragmentation?
Based on current trajectories and historical patterns, several scenarios emerge for Bangladesh's political future.
Scenario 1: Stabilized Hybrid Authoritarianism (Most Likely)
This scenario envisions military-guided "managed democracy" similar to Turkey under Erdoğan or Egypt under Sisi, where elections occur but real power rests with military-Islamist coalition. Economic growth continues through foreign investment while civil liberties shrink, accompanied by gradual Islamization of education, legal system, and public discourse.
Probability factors supporting this scenario include the military's institutional interests in stability, Islamist groups' organizational strength and ideological commitment, foreign powers' preference for predictable authoritarianism over democratic uncertainty, and public fatigue with political instability.
Scenario 2: Democratic Resistance and Prolonged Instability
This scenario involves sustained civil society resistance to authoritarian drift, urban-rural polarization leading to persistent unrest, and secular forces (remnant AL supporters, civil society, youth movements) organizing sustained opposition. There exists risk of sectarian violence if Islamists gain excessive political power.
Triggers for this scenario include aggressive Islamist policy implementation, military overreach in civilian governance, economic crisis undermining regime legitimacy, and international pressure for democratic restoration.
Scenario 3: Military Authoritarianism (Moderate Probability)
This scenario features direct military rule following civilian government failure, suspension of democratic institutions in the name of stability, technocratic governance focused on economic development, and repression of both Islamist and secular opposition.
Probability factors include Bangladesh's history of 29 actual or attempted coups, military's growing frustration with civilian inefficiency, and regional examples of successful military-led development.
Scenario 4: Foreign-Brokered Compromise (Low Probability)
This scenario involves international mediation leading to power-sharing arrangement, constitutional framework balancing secular and religious elements, gradual democratization under international oversight, and economic incentives for political moderation.
Requirements include sustained international pressure from US, EU, and India, economic leverage to incentivize compromise, and regional stability concerns outweighing national sovereignty.
Scenario 5: Fragmentation and State Failure (Low but High-Impact)
This scenario features complete breakdown of central authority, regional autonomy movements gaining momentum, economic collapse and humanitarian crisis, and potential for refugee crisis affecting neighboring countries.
Risk factors include ethnic and religious tensions in border regions, climate change impacts on agriculture and displacement, and competition between global powers paralyzing governance.
8. Historical Parallels and Contemporary Distinctions
Echoes of 1975-1990: Similar Patterns, New Dynamics
The current situation mirrors past military-Islamist realignments but with crucial differences.
Similarities to Historical Patterns
Contemporary patterns echo historical precedents through military as ultimate arbiter of political power, use of Islam for political legitimization, foreign powers backing competing factions, and erosion of secular democratic institutions.
Contemporary Distinctions
Modern dynamics differ through methods of control involving soft power and institutional capture rather than direct coups. Islamist organization has become more sophisticated and internationally networked. The global context features a multipolar world with China challenging Western dominance.
Communication capabilities through social media enable rapid mobilization but also propaganda, while economic integration through deeper global economic ties constrains unilateral action.
Lessons from Regional Examples
Turkey Model: Gradual Islamization under Democratic Facade
This model demonstrates initial economic success followed by authoritarian consolidation, use of religious nationalism to mobilize support, and systematic dismantling of secular institutions.
Egypt Model: Military-backed Stability over Democratic Chaos
This approach prioritizes economic development over political freedoms, contains religious extremism through state control, and receives regional powers' support for authoritarian stability.
Pakistan Model: Persistent Civil-Military Imbalance
This pattern involves regular democratic interruptions by military interventions, religious parties as junior partners in governance, and chronic institutional weakness and external dependency.
9. Conclusion: Bangladesh at a Dangerous Crossroads
Bangladesh stands at what may be its most critical juncture since independence. Many Bangladeshis describe the downfall of Sheikh Hasina as a "second liberation," bespeaking widespread desire for major change. However, the country's trajectory since 1975 demonstrates how political disruptions have repeatedly undermined democratic consolidation and enabled authoritarian reversals.
The Current Moment: Opportunity and Peril
The August 2024 uprising represents both an unprecedented democratic mobilization and a dangerous opening for anti-democratic forces. While students and civil society demonstrated remarkable organizational capacity and moral clarity, the political vacuum created by Hasina's sudden departure has enabled various actors—military strategists, Islamist organizations, and foreign powers—to advance their own agendas.
The Battle for Bangladesh's Soul
The fundamental tension between secular nationalism and religious majoritarianism remains unresolved, with three competing visions for the country's future:
1. Secular Democratic Bangladesh: Urban, educated, globally integrated
2. Islamic Republic of Bangladesh: Rural, traditional, regionally oriented
3. Hybrid Bangladesh: Authoritarian stability balancing competing forces
Critical Vulnerabilities
Several factors make Bangladesh particularly susceptible to authoritarian drift.
Institutional Weakness: Decades of political manipulation have hollowed out democratic institutions, making them vulnerable to capture by well-organized minority forces.
Economic Pressures: High youth unemployment, inflation, and inequality create grievances that both democratic and extremist movements can exploit.
Geopolitical Competition: Great power rivalry between China, India, and the US creates incentives for external manipulation of domestic politics.
Social Fragmentation: Urban-rural, generational, and religious divides provide fault lines that authoritarian entrepreneurs can exploit.
The Path Forward: Requirements for Democratic Consolidation
For Bangladesh to break the cycle of political instability and authoritarianism, several conditions must be met.
Institutional Reconstruction: Building truly independent courts, election commissions, and civil service systems that can withstand political pressure.
Inclusive Constitutional Framework: Developing a constitutional consensus that accommodates both secular and religious identities without privileging either.
Economic Development: Addressing underlying grievances through job creation, education expansion, and social mobility opportunities.
Civil Society Strengthening: Supporting independent media, academia, and civic organizations that can serve as checks on state power.
Regional Cooperation: Working with neighboring countries to address shared challenges like terrorism, migration, and climate change.
The Stakes
The success or failure of Bangladesh's current transition will have profound implications far beyond its borders. As the world's third-largest Muslim-majority country and eighth-most populous nation, Bangladesh's trajectory will influence regional stability through effects on India-China competition and South Asian security.
It will also impact global Islam by determining whether moderate, democratic Islam can coexist with secular governance. Development models will be affected by whether populous developing countries can achieve prosperity through democratic means. Migration patterns will be influenced by political and economic outcomes affecting massive population movements.
Final Assessment
Bangladesh's current crisis is simultaneously a culmination of long-term structural problems and an acute manifestation of global trends toward authoritarianism. The window for democratic consolidation may be narrowing, but it remains open. The choices made in the coming months—by political leaders, civil society, the military, and international actors—will determine whether Bangladesh becomes a model of democratic resilience or another cautionary tale of authoritarianism's appeal in times of uncertainty.
The battle between secular nationalism and religious majoritarianism remains far from over—and its outcome will indeed determine the soul of the nation for generations to come. In this dangerous moment, the imperative for all democratic forces, both domestic and international, is to act decisively to preserve the space for pluralistic governance while addressing the legitimate grievances that have fueled political instability.
The stakes could not be higher: Bangladesh's future as a stable, prosperous democracy hangs in the balance, with implications extending far beyond its borders to the broader struggle between democratic and authoritarian governance in the 21st century.
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